News that can help you to understanding economic condition for forex

Are you forgotten fundamental analysis? Oh...no at all.Good.Now you can guess an economic condition of a certain country quite well. How? Well I just now send to you. Try to overcome learning Forex quickly ......................



Beige Book : Current Economic condition shows. The USA federal reserve board uses this report to determine about  interest rate policy at FOMC meetings  after the release the beige book a report  published.
Effect : If the beige book portrays inflationary pressure then the The FED may raise interest rates. If the beige book portrays recessionary conditions then the FED may set low interest Rates.
Published : Eight times  in a year. Two weeks ago the FOMC meeting at 2.00 pm ET on Wednesday.
Source : The Federal Reserve Board.


The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index ( PMI ) : It is related ISM index which is Very much in use for determining overall economic activity. If 50% above the grade then expanding factory Sector or below 50% indicate the opposite.
Published : Monthly. Current month last business day at 10.00 ET.
Source : Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Association.

Consumer Confidence Index : It is based on current economic situation survey on 5000 Consumer’s.
Published : Monthly. Current month last Tuesday at 10.00 ET.
Source : The Conference Board.

Consumer Price Index ( CPI ): It is familiar as Cost – Living-Index. It is referred the Core CPI which is one of the key measure of inflation for the US economy. Inflation occurs when core CPI is larger than expected. It measures the price changes such as food, energy, house rent.
Published : Monthly. Current month at 13th 8.30 ET.
Source : Bureau of Labuor Statistics, US Department of Law.


Durable Good’s Order: It is official calls as Advance Report of Durable Goods manufacture’s and Order.
Effect : If the index rise then production raise + employment get a job. And the other is opposite.
Source : The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce
Published : Monthly. Current month the 26th at 8.30 ET.
Employment Cost Index (ECI) : It measures labuor cost including wages/salaries and benefits as well. 
Effect : It is useful in evaluating wage trend and risk of wage inflation. If wage inflation.Threaten’s interest will be rise then bond and the stock price will fall.
Published : Quarterly. Last business day of Jan , April, July, Oct at 8.30 ET.
Source : US department of labor. Bureau of labour statistics.


Existing home sales :
Source : The National Association of Realtors.
Published : Monthly. On the current month 25th business day. 

Gross domestic products (GDP) :
Source : US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
Published : Quarterly. 3rd / 4th of the month at 8.30 am ET.
Housing starts and Building permit : It is relevant just residential investment which is near ¼  GDP. 
Source : The census bureau of the department of commerce.
Published : Monthly 16th.

Industrial production and capacity utilization : Industrial sector represents 25% of GDP. It's this rate Up 85% then inflationary pressure is generated. 
Source : The board of governor of the federal reserve system.
Published : Monthly 15th.
Initial claims : Person whose claims to Gov. for the first time they are unemployment. So people claim so that job market growth.
Source : The department of labour of the gov.
Published: Weekly, Thursdays 8.30 ET

ISM Manufacturing Index : Its service is 300 purchasing nationwide under 20 categories.
Effect : It is considered as the king of all manufacturing indices.
Published : Monthly and first business day.
Source : Institute of Supply and Management.
Website : http://www.ism.ws

New Home Sales : It measures the consumer spending capacity of the certain countries' economies  Condition. If existing home sales then Good understanding guesses of economic condition.
Published : Monthly and last business day.
Source : The census bureau of the department of commerce 

Personal Income and Consumption:  US consumer spends 95 cents every Dollar and their income. So Corporate profit and economic sound look good.
Published : Monthly and first business day
Source : US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis

Philadelphia Index :  Regional manufacturing index.
Published : Monthly third Thursday
Source : The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank

Producer Price Index (PPI):  3 types of PPI. Industry, commodity, and stage of processing.
Effect : It is identifying  food and energy for its monthly stability and  called as Core PPI. So inflationary pressure is created when core PPI is greater then expected gains.
Source : The department of labour of the gov.
Published : Monthly 11th.

Retail Sales : The index measuring total sales of goods.
Published : Monthly 12th
Source : The census bureau of the department of commerce.

International Trade : The report of Export and Import different of US goods and services. About 14% GDP is involved with Export and Import.
Published : Monthly 19th.
Source : US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis.








Carry Trading in the Forex Market

Carry means investment. So investment where.. how...why and benefit? Let us carry trade in the Forex market. You enter into the Forex why? Because you want to profit big or small depending your trading isn't it? Yes. So if you want a large amount of profit then carry trading is right for you. But some risks have has to. And in the Forex you probably learn about this risk.
Carry trading is a trading currencies when sells currency which is low interest rate and make fund then buy a high interest rate currency. So by benefiting difference interest rate with the two currencies. Generally carry trades on the daily basis pay method means if you carry trading and your difference interest rate add/give to you by your broker daily basic. Huh...is the right?
Yes. You have gained market movement knowledge very sharply if you want to carry trading. Now attention the following example:

You find suppose AUD interest rate as 6% and USD rate at 2% then different is (6-2)=4%.The economy is good of AUD.And AUD is probably bullish today/this week/this month more than bearish.So you guess that AUD must be upward.Then you buy AUD and sell USD.If AUD is continue bullish and you hold on your position then after one day later you will be get some interest by your broker at 4% and Plus your profit of buy trading is off course still at your balancing point.So carry trading has huge profit by the end of day/week/month/year/s .In the 1990's carry trading heavily cause with jpy/usd because bank of Japan declared low interest rate or about 0%, carry trading interest given is relatively with leverage that you used on the broker.
Again suppose you enter as carry trading then interest different is 4% and you leverage is 10:1 in this case you got 45% interest by your broker.

The most disadvantage is carry trading  the currency pair quote is unstable. So if the trade is against on your favor then you have paid interest from your balance this is cause highly loses of your capital.
So be careful! Cut you lose and gain profit use  fundamental, technical, sentimental analysis for this.

Is The US Dollar Index (USDX) Helpful For Forex

The US Dollar Index is a value of the US Dollar against of  major foreign currencies. It is weighted as the geometric system that mean it's value compared with other 6 major currencies. They are

*EURO................................................... 16.50% weight
*JPY...................................................... 07.28% weight
*GBP..................................................... 03.42% weight
*CAD...................................................... 12.92% weight
*CHF (Swiss Franc).................................. 01.68% weight
*SEK (Swedish Krona)............................... 0.79% weight
*data 10th October 2012

In the March 1973, Bretton Woods System after that it starts with as 100.000 and it's high record 164.7200 in February 1985 and low record in March 2008 as 70.698.

So if you find US Dollar Index as 85.246 that means it fell (100.000-85.246) = 14.754 then you can guess that against pair may be opportunity for buy and hold on.

Formula:
 50.14348112*EURO/USD^ (-576) *USD/JPY^ (0.136) *GBP/USD^ (-119) *USD/CAD^ (0.091) *USD/SEK^ (0.042) *USD/CEF^ (0.036)

Find out index: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H10/Weights

Stephen Jen an economist and former currency strategist describe a theory namely as "The US Dollar Smile Theory"
He has taken up 3 scenarios for this theory as
1. USD strengthens due to risk aversion.
2. USD strengthens due to economic growth.
3. USD weakens due to low economic growth.

Therefore you may find some interesting reaction the USDX for Forex trading. Huh.... Ready to observe it?
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